Current Top 12 Has It
All
The NASCAR Sprint Cup
Series top 12
doesn’t get much more
varied than this.
Here’s the breakdown of
a top 12 filled with
champions, veterans and
a couple of big surprises:
• Five past NASCAR
Sprint Cup Series champions:
Matt Kenseth (second),
Jimmie Johnson
(No. 48 Lowe’s
Chevrolet) (fourth), Tony Stewart
(No. 14 Office
Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
(eighth), Kurt Busch
(No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
(10th) and Jeff Gordon
(No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
(11th).
• Three past NASCAR
Nationwide Series
champions: points
leader Kevin Harvick (No. 29
Shell/Pennzoil
Chevrolet), Greg Biffle (No. 16
3M Ford) (third) and
Clint Bowyer (No. 33
Cheerios/Hamburger
Helper Chevrolet) (fifth).
• Two respected
veterans: Jeff Burton (No.
31 Caterpillar
Chevrolet) (sixth) and Mark Martin
(No. 5 GoDaddy.com
Chevrolet) (seventh).
• Two surprises – and
“surprise” might not be
a strong enough word:
Paul Menard (No. 98
Menards Ford) (ninth)
and Scott Speed (No. 83
Red Bull Toyota)
(12th).
With a fifth-place
finish at Atlanta, Menard
entered the top 10 in
points for the first time in his
series career, which
began full-time in 2007.
Entering this season,
Menard’s previous best
points position was
21st. Now, if the season
ended today, he’d make
the Chase for the NASCAR
Sprint Cup.
“Obviously, we’re off
to a much better start
than I’ve ever been off
to before,” Menard said. I
was 38th in points
after the Atlanta race last year,
and this is a whole new
race team for me. It’s
great to be in the top
10 in points, but it’s way too
early to get caught up
in the points thing. I don’t
think we’re as
surprised as everyone else seems
to be."
Same goes for Scott
Speed, who has the
added pressure of
having to qualify on speed for
at least the first five
races of this season. (For the
first five races, the
top 35 from last year’s owner
points are locked into
each event. Speed’s No.
82 Toyota was 36th in
owner points in 2009.)
Speaking of which …
NASCAR makes the top 12
drivers available
to the media each race
weekend. Some drivers
come into the media
center for their news conferences;
some have the pressers
in the garage at
their hauler.
Here’s one of the few
guarantees you’ll get
in NASCAR: Speed will
be in the media center
for his availability at
Bristol Motor Speedway next
week. Because of
Bristol’s cramped confines,
only the top 35 and one
past champion are allowed
to park in the infield.
Speed’s No. 82 Red
Bull hauler will be
outside the track, making it
impossible – or at
best, inconvenient – to have a
hauler chat.
Quite a turnaround from
last season.
“Funny how last year we
had to look at a
line when we were
talking about points, but that
line was the top-35
line, now we are looking at
the line that divides
the Chase – the top-12 line,"
Speed said. “"It's
weird to be up there with the
group of guys who win
championships in a sport
where I still consider
myself an amateur."
Speaking of unforeseen
success: Harvick’s
three-week reign atop
the series points standings
is the longest of his
career. Prior to this stretch,
Harvick had led the
points twice, each for a single
week. The first was
after winning Chase race
No. 1 at New Hampshire
in 2006. The other was
after winning the
Daytona 500 in 2007.
This early in the
season,
predicting the field
for the
Chase for the NASCAR
Sprint Cup is tough.
There are still 22
races left before the top 12
drivers are locked into
the Chase – and championship
contention.
Still, it’s never too
early for predictions when
talking sports.
Here are two numbers
that might help forecast
who will run for this
year’s championship
come September.
63.8 – Percentage of
drivers who make the
Chase when they’re in
the top 12 of the NASCAR
Sprint Cup points
standings after four races since
the field expanded to
12 drivers in 2007.
77.8 – Percentage of
drivers who make the
Chase when they’re
ranked in the top 12 of
Driver Rating after
four races.
In other words, those
drivers who are running
well, yet are outside
the top 12 shouldn’t
worry just yet. Namely:
Juan Pablo Montoya,
Kasey Kahne (No. 9
Budweiser Ford) and Kyle
Busch (No. 18 M&Ms
Toyota).
All three are currently
outside the top
12, but rank in the top
12 in Driver Rating. Here’s
a breakdown of some of
the bad luck suffered by
all three:
Montoya: The
Colombia-native has the
ninth-best Driver
Rating, yet sits outside the top
20 in points. But luck
has plagued his season. At
Auto Club Speedway,
Montoya suffered a DNF
because of a blown
engine. A week later in Las
Vegas, he got caught up
in an accident with
Earnhardt Ganassi
Racing teammate Jamie
McMurray. Both races
ended with 37th-place
finishes. At ACS,
Montoya had a solid Driver
Rating of 89.9. In
Vegas, his Driver Rating was
71.5.
Kahne: Likewise, Kahne
has had two bad
finishes that had more
to do with bad luck than
performance. At
Daytona, he had a DNF
(accident), and
finished 30th. But his Driver Rating
was a strong 91.0. A
week later at Auto Club
Speedway, Kahne was in
eighth place when he
spun coming out of Turn
4 and finished 34th. His
Driver Rating that race
was 72.7. Overall, Kahne
has a sixth-best Driver
Rating of 97.3, but a
points position of
17th.
Busch: The younger
Busch has led at least
one lap in all four
races and has scored Driver
Ratings over 95.0 in
three of the four. Still, he is
looking for the
season’s first top-10 finish. His
Driver Rating of 91.9
ranks 10th in the series, yet
he sits 15th in the
points standings.
Look At The Loop: Stats
Show That Some Points Positions Are
Deceiving, Thus Far This Season
Juan Pablo Montoya
is only one of several
NASCAR Sprint Cup
Series drivers whose
current points position
belie their ontrack
performance
during the season’s
first four races.
NASCAR Sprint Cup
Series, Etc.
• Competition Up:
Through the first four
races, passing numbers
are higher than they
have been in any of the
previous five seasons.
There have been a total
of 263 green flag passes
for the lead and 17,925
green flag passes all
around the track in
2010. Both numbers are
highs through four
races since NASCAR starting
collecting the Loop
Data in 2005.
Sunday’s race at
Atlanta contributed to the
increased competition.
There were a track-best
33 green flag passes
for the lead. The previous
best was 28, set on
March 20, 2005.
• Rough Start: While
the strong starts by
Paul Menard and Scott
Speed might be the
surprise story of 2010
so far, the lack of success
of a number of marquee
drivers ranks high in the
“unforeseen storylines”
category.
Four members of last
year’s Chase field
currently reside 20th
or worse in the series standings:
Carl Edwards (20th),
Juan Pablo
Montoya (No. 42 Target
Chevrolet) (21st),
Denny Hamlin (No. 11
FedEx Toyota) (22nd)
and Ryan Newman (No. 39
U.S. Army Chevrolet)
(29th).
• Hendrick Clunker?: A
rarity occurred Sunday
at Atlanta Motor
Speedway – not a single
member of Hendrick
Motorsports finished in the
top 10. The last time
that happened was at Watkins
Glen in August of last
season. The last time
it happened in a
non-road course event was last
season’s rain-shortened
Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte
Motor Speedway.
• Top 35 Watch: The
battle around the top 35
will be one of the top
storylines at Bristol Motor
Speedway in two weeks.
Bristol, race No. 5 of
the 2010 season, is the
final event where last
season’s owner points
are used to determine the
guaranteed 35 spots in
each event’s field.
After Bristol, the 2010
owner points will be
the determining factor.
That all means a race
within a race is set for
Bristol.
Drivers whose cars are
currently ahead of
that top 35 line: Sam
Hornish Jr. (No. 77 Mobil
1 Dodge) (49 points
ahead of the cut-off line),
David Gilliland (No. 38
Taco Bell Ford) (42
points), Brad
Keselowski (No. 12 Penske Racing
Dodge) (19 points) and
Travis Kvapil (No.
34 Long John Silver’s
Ford) (nine points).
Mike Bliss (No. 36 Wave
Energy Drink
Chevrolet) sits on the
line at 35th, in a points tie
with Raybestos Rookie
of the Year candidate
Kevin Conway (No. 37
Extenze Ford). Each
have 276 points.
Outside the bubble:
Boris Said (No. 26
Southern Pride Trucking
Ford), 24 points out;
Robby Gordon (No. 7
Warner Music Nashville/
Blake Shelton Toyota),
27 points out; and Max
Papis (No. 13 GEICO
Toyota), 29 points out.
Up Next: Race 5 @
Bristol
For more information,
contact:
Herb Branham, NASCAR
Public Relations,
(386) 310-6050;
hbranham@nascar.com
Following this offweek,
the NASCAR
Sprint Cup Series
returns
to action March 21
with the Food City 500
at Bristol Motor Speedway’s
half-mile of high
banks.
If you’re looking for a
safe bet, go with
Busch to win — either
Kurt or Kyle.
Together, the Busch
Brothers have dominated
Bristol events in
recent years with eight
victories since the
start of the 2002 season —
five by Kurt and three
by Kyle, including a season
sweep of last year’s
two events.
Kurt Busch and Jeff
Gordon share the
series lead for Bristol
wins among active drivers,
at five apiece.
Darrell Waltrip still
holds the all-time BMS
win record, with 12.
The Food City 500 is
the season’s first
short-track race and it
starts a “short-track doubleheader”
since the following
week, the series
goes to the .526-mile
Martinsville Speedway.
The two weeks of
old-school competition
result from a schedule
adjustment of several
years ago. Consecutive
short-track events once
were routine.
There currently are six
short-track races on
the schedule; Bristol,
Martinsville and .75-mile
Richmond International
Raceway each host two
events.
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